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The controversy that discounting can cause is nowhere more evident than in the dramatic findings of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change [Stern ] and the ensuing debate surrounding those conclusions. The Stern Review opts for the latter approach, Preparing the U. Nelson, 1,4 W. Anticipatory action is argued to be both more equitable and more effective than responses after events 8, Ackerman et al. Kling, 1 Raymond W. Arritt, 2 Gray Calhoun, 1 and David A. In contrast to earlier studies based on ex ante uncertainty Nordhaus , To classic accounts of the peculiarly difficult features of climate change as a moral and political problem Gardiner , Our integrated assessment model is based on that of Golosov et al.

We use the structure of Golosov et al. Golosov et al. We follow Golosov et al.

Reviews of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology 193

Again following Golosov et al. For the carbon cycle parameters, we also follow Golosov et al. Examples include Acemoglu et al. An exception is the study by Golosov et al. The model of Golosov et al. In the formula of Golosov et al. Although the more recent matter of climate change has drawn strong, renewed attention to the matter Nordhaus , It turns out that differing assumptions in social discounting explain the major differences between most integrated assessments of climate change and mitigation policies Plambeck et al.

I close with a recent illustration by Nordhaus of the importance of the social discount rate in climate change evaluation. Subsequent debate has focused on the evidence that underpinned this central conclusion [Nordhaus , The substance of Nordhaus and Weitzman is that there is, This uncertainty cannot leave future interest rates unaffected Gollier , Weitzman To make clear how uncertainty affects the level of discount rates, we give an example that is presented in Weitzman Weitzman I sidestep questions on the correlation between the stochastic process creating overall growth and the potentially random process characterizing payoffs from climate change mitigation projects for more on this issue, see Weitzman , Traeger Subsequent debate has focused on the evidence that underpinned this central conclusion [Nordhaus , Weitzman , Starting with Fankhauser et al.

The Economics of Kenneth J. Brown, 1 V. Kerry Smith, 2 Gordon R. Mezey and Jon M. Weisbrod originally set forth the concept of option value for a park or hospital. Seto, 1 Steven J.

Novel Ceramic Materials, Chapter 8

Davis, 2 Ronald B. Mitchell, 3 Eleanor C. This conclusion conflicted with assertions from other scholars who argue that mitigation efforts should target more reversible—cheaper—capital stock The effect of uncertainty on policy adoption is ambiguous when both the benefits and the costs of the policy are at least partially sunk Kolstad Toman, Richard D. The reason, as Kolstad 52 notes, is that we currently operate in an environment with a lot of uncertainty about abatement costs and technology as well as climate change damages.

The above papers do not consider the possibility of catastrophic climate change. Are Cattle Markets the Last Frontier? Crespi 1 and Tina L. How far could the atomization go, and why and where does it stop? Knight , Coase , Hall, 1 Edoardo Borgomeo, 1 Matthew C. Centeno, 1 Manish Nag, 1 Thayer S. Patterson, 2 Andrew Shaver, 3 and A.

These paradoxes profoundly complicate the taken-for-granted status of Knight's classic distinction by linking the proliferation of unknown risks, Schumpeter , Knight , Just, 1 Sivalai V. Khantachavana, 1 and Richard E.

  • Additional information.
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Knight was the first modern economist to formalize a theory. Most of these axioms have received much discussion see Gilboa Brock, 1,2 A. The term ambiguity arises in a variety of guises. Millner et al. Is Natural Capital Really Substitutable?

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Some examples of CTPs include the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet or a disruption of the thermohaline circulation Lenton et al. Most articles about CTPs have focused on climatological effects Lenton et al. A particularly difficult issue with the adequacy of inclusive wealth as a metric of sustainable development comes from the potential for rapid shifts in future conditions that are possible with nonlinear dynamics in complex systems 97, Bhatt, 1,2 Donald A.

Walker, 3,4 John E. Walsh, 5 Eddy C. Carmack, 8 Karen E. Frey, 9 Walter N. Meier, 10 Sue E.

Moore, 11 Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, 12 Eric Post, 13 Vladimir E. Romanovsky, 2,6 and William R. Environmental Tipping Points Timothy M.

The conception of tipping points in climatology 3 , of regime shifts in ecology Previous work has identified a short list of tipping elements in Earth's climate system 3. Tipping elements are at least subcontinental-scale 1, km or greater in length subsystems of the Earth system that can exhibit a tipping point 3.

Estimates of the proximity of these tipping points have been collated We are at the lower end of this temperature range, and the GIS is already losing mass 3. Mach 1 and Christopher B. The focus, rooted in past IPCC reports e. Hofmann, 1 James P. Barry, 2 Peter J. Edmunds, 3 Ruth D. Gates, 4 David A.

Hutchins, 5 Terrie Klinger, 6 and Mary A. Traeger decomposes the determinants of the social discount rates into a real substitutability effect and an overall growth effect. Traeger provides the most recent and most rigorous analysis here, Beerling , 3 Tim Beringer , 4 Katherine V. Climate change 10 will increase both the incidence and the severity of these effects. These represent the most extreme of the potential future climate scenarios used by the IPCC in Schuur and Michelle C. Upland thaw subsidence with little or no erosion alters soil nutrient and water availability as the active layer thickens Schuur et al.

Models suggest declining CO 2 as the most plausible forcing of Greenland glaciation 79 , which would likely have occurred through bifurcation tipping Among studies focused on the difference between 1. Schleussner et al. Figure 5 depicts regionally resolved differences between 1.

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Projections presented in Schleussner et al. Table 2 provides a direct comparison of sea level projections based on the methodologies in Schleussner et al. Reductions in Mediterranean annual water availability might double between 1. Reduction in annual water availability in the Mediterranean Changes in local crop yields for present-day tropical agricultural areas Central range models include Perrette13 , Slangen14 , Mengel16 , Schleussner16 , Bakker17 , Goodwin17 Figure adapted from Crosby et al. Arnell et al. Bowman, 1 Jessica A.

O'Brien, 2 and Johann G. Moritz et al.

Myers-Smith, 4 and Dov F. Climate change is one of the most important threats facing people and wildlife and is a focus of considerable research in every discipline, including biodiversity conservation These dynamics may lead to a poleward migration of agricultural productivity Ongoing work is exploring these issues in greater depth, at both global and regional scales According to a study by Allen et al.

Short-Lived Climate Pollution R. These properties have been confirmed in a wide variety of models Allen et al. Gutowski, 1 Julian M.